It does not say we have recovered, only that we've turned the corner, and it doesn't say anything about how long it will take to reach full employment. An examination of recent data does reveal a "fishhook" shape, though the part of the hook with the barb is pretty short.
So it's hard to quarrel with the date they assigned, particularly given how past recessions were dated.
recessions have increasingly affected economies on a worldwide scale, especially as countries' economies become more intertwined.
The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".
No recession of the post-World War II era has come anywhere near the depth of the Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 until 1941 and was caused by the 1929 crash of the stock market and other factors.
Attempts have been made to date recessions in America beginning in 1790.
Major modern economic statistics, such as unemployment and GDP, were not compiled on a regular and standardized basis until after World War II.
The average duration of the 11 recessions between 19 is 10 months, compared to 18 months for recessions between 19, and 22 months for recessions from 1854 to 1919.
I don't think this will have much of an impact on the Fed's decision, they weren't likely to do much more before and, since this call is unlikely to be news to members of the FOMC, it won't have much impact on what they do.But I'm very worried we are going to bounce along the bottom of the valley near the trough for an extended period of time rather than making a strong move back to full employment.If the apparent turnaround stalls, or if we regress a bit, it won't be as certain that the bottom is behind us.Both can argue that although the recovery is slower than we'd hoped and expected, the past stimulus helped us turn the corner and at this point we've done all that we can do. As I've made clear here in past posts, I think that's a mistake, there's still more that can and should be done for labor markets in particular -- I fear stagnation is ahead and we need to take insurance against that outcome now -- but this announcement makes such action less likely.Cycles in the country's agricultural production, industrial production, consumption, business investment, and the health of the banking industry contribute to these declines. The unofficial beginning and ending dates of recessions in the United States have been defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), an American private nonprofit research organization.